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Our Last Chance Value Picks won again last week and we are now 15-3 ATS over the last six weeks. Let’s check out which lines have drifted too far and keep crushing the books!
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 3rd, 2021 – 1:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Setting aside the Cleveland/Pittsburgh game where there are wholesale changes on the Steelers’ starting roster this week, this is about the largest line shift on the board this week, along with the Titans/Texans game below. Our Last Chance Value NFL picks are borne, for the most part, out of public perception moving the line and not an entire roster change, which is why the Steelers were not included in this edition.
College Football Picks
The Lions line has now crossed two critical numbers (4 and 6), which gives them excellent value against a Vikings’ team that enters this matchup with a 6-9 record and has failed to cash against the number over their last six contests. The big question mark is whether or not Detroit QB Matthew Stafford will be under center after suffering several injuries over the last few weeks.
But if you listen to Lions’ interim coach, Darrell Bevell, there’s a decent chance he plays, “You’re going to have to convince me a lot that this guy’s not going to go.” Let’s roll the dice and take our chances because even if it is Chase Daniel under center, the fact is, Minnesota is not a very good team and for them to be laying north of six on the road against anyone is a stretch.
Last Chance Value NFL Pick:Lions +6 ½ (-108), shop up to +3 ½ at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 3rd, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at Bills Stadium
I am particularly fond of this game because it is one of my top three best bets in a weekly column I write, called Swinger’s Picks. If you take a look at that piece, which was written on Thursday morning, you will see that this line went as low as 2 ½ over at BetOnline and has now bounced up to three, due to what I believe is sharp money taking advantage of a number that had dropped too low.
Well, guess what? It’s still too low at all of the best betting sites, and we’re getting an excellent value on the Bills because, like the Dolphins, they too have something to play for in this contest. The public perception is that Miami needs it more because they will enter the playoffs for the time since 2016 with a W, but the Bills will lock in the No. 2 seed with a win. Ensuring home-field advantage throughout the playoffs against anyone but the Chiefs.
Bottom line is, who ya got, Tua or Allen? Me too.
Nfl Betting Picks
Last Chance Value NFL Pick:Bills -3 (-110), shop up to -5 ½ at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, January 3rd, 2021 - 4:25 PM ET at NRG Stadium
This game looks like a shootout to me. Both defenses have been racked with injuries, and neither can stop a nose bleed at this point. The Texans are at home and have shot up three points, traveling through and off of the 6, and the second most important number in football – seven.
The last time these teams tangoed was in Week 6 when Tennessee emerged with a 42-36 overtime victory, and this should be more of the same. However, let’s not forget that the venue has shifted to Houston, and the NFL odds are actually 3 ½ points higher on Houston now than they were back on October 18th, even though the Texans have home-field advantage.
Well, all know Ryan Tannehill has exceeded expectations and that Derrick Henry is a wagon. However, Tennessee got torched by the Packers last week, as their offense was stuck in neutral in a 40-14 loss. I have said on more than one occasion this season that the Titans are this year’s paper tigers, and the Texans will prove it by keeping this one within the margins.
Last Chance Value NFL Pick:Texans +7 ½ (-105), shop up to +4 ½ at BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
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The torrid streak of ATS covers continued last week in our Last Chance Value Picks as we went 3-0 against the number and are now 18-3 ATS over the last seven weeks! Let’s keep the money train chugging along in our NFL picks!
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, January 9th, 2021 – 4:40 PM ET at Lumen Field
The NFL odds in this one dropped from Seattle -4 ½ to -3, which is significant in that it traveled through, off of, and onto two magic numbers – four and three. The action is pouring in on the traveling dog, which is due to a few things.
First and foremost, the status of LA quarterback Jared Goff is looking more optimistic after he was sidelined with thumb surgery last week against the Cardinals. Secondly, the high-flying Seahawks managed an average of just 18 points in their two games against the Rams this season.
Well, let’s understand that the Seahawks won the last game, 20-9, and covered the number with ease. Next, let’s also take into consideration that if Goff doesn’t play, then we get a mismatch of one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Russell Wilson against a serviceable backup in LA’s John Wolford. And even if Goff does play, he is less than two weeks removed from having a pair of screws drilled into his thumb. How do you think that will go for him?
The Rams have a terrific defense for sure, but you’ve got to score points to win the game, and I don’t see LA outscoring Wilson and this Seattle offense.
Last Chance Value Pick:Seahawks -3 (-115), shop up to -4 ½ at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Football Team
Saturday, January 9th, 8:15 pm ET at FedEx Field
The benefits of residing in the worst division in football allow you to not only gain entrance into the postseason with a 7-9 record but get the home-field advantage as well! Such is the case with the Washington No Names, a team that barely eked into the playoffs with a 20-14 win over the Eagles and is now expected to hang and bang with the GOAT, Tom Brady, and the embarrassment of weapons at his disposal.
Nfl Odds And Picks
Although this line has dropped a full two points, it’s not all that significant because the only number between 9 ½ and 7 ½ that is of any slight consequence is nine, and to be honest, it’s not all that consequential. But a two-point drop is still better than none, especially when it appears this is such a mismatch on paper.
Sure, Mike Evans, Brady’s top target may not play, which is largely the reason for the tumbling line, and Washington has a burgeoning superstar in pass rusher Chase Young. But that’s not enough to tilt the balance of power between these clubs. Let’s lay it, like it, and back the Bucs in our NFL picks on Saturday!
Last Chance Value Pick:Bucs -7 ½ (-108), shop up to -9 ½ at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints
Nfl Betting Picks Week 3
Sunday, January 10th, 2021 - 4:40 pm ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Yes, it’s only a half-point drop and it’s not like it’s coming off of a truly critical number like 3,4,6, or 7, but it’s the Saints matching up against the “just happy to be here” Chicago Bears. Oh, and one other thing that I like about New Orleans in this matchup – it’s one of my rare five-unit plays over at the weekly column I write called Swinger’s Picks.
If you check my write-up on this game you will see that on Thursday morning, when the column was written, the number on this game had actually dropped to as low as 9 ½, and I pounced all over that for the max, five units. But now the line has ticked up to -10 but no juice over at one of the best books out there, Intertops. Bet it, forget it, and then cash it. The Saints are loaded for bear this week and will march all over Chicago.
Last Chance Value Pick:Saints -10 (+100), shop up to -10 ½ at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)
Nfl Expert Picks Against Spread
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.